For the month of October we saw rates bouncing up and down pretty wildly. For the month of November we have not seen any large one week changes but a steady trend downward. The 30 year mortgage rate has moved down for the last 4 weeks. For the most part the other three major mortgage products have moved down as well the last four week. With the 30 year moving down to 5.97 this marks the first time the 30 year rate has moved below 6 since October 9th. As far as the other mortgage products the 15 year fixed and the 5 year arm remained relatively stable while we saw a decent drop in the 1 year arm with it moving from 5.29 to 5.18. Here are mortgage rates for the major mortgage products for the last few weeks.
November 26, 2008
30-yr 5.97 15-yr 5.74 5-yr ARM 5.86 1-yr ARM 5.18
November 20, 2008
30-yr 6.04 15-yr 5.73 5-yr ARM 5.87 1-yr ARM 5.29
November 13, 2008
30-yr 6.14 15-yr 5.81 5-yr ARM 5.98 1-yr ARM 5.33
November 6, 2008
30-yr 6.20 15-yr 5.88 5-yr ARM 6.19 1-yr ARM 5.25
October 30, 2008
30-yr 6.46 15-yr 6.19 5-yr ARM 6.36 1-yr ARM 5.38
So let's see what this week's rates translate into for a mortgage. We used our free mortgage calculator to translate today's rates into a payment on a 200k mortgage loan. For good measure we ran the calculator on last week's rates and rates from a month ago (October 30th).
November 26th
30-yr $1195.24
15-yr $1659.74
5-yr ARM $1181.15
1-yr ARM $1095.75
November 20th
30-yr $1204.24
15-yr $1658.67
5-yr ARM $1182.43
1-yr ARM $1109.36
October 30th
30-yr 1258.87
15-yr 1708.31
5-yr ARM 1245.77
1-yr ARM 1120.56
Looking at a 30 year loan we can see the changes from a week don't amount to much ($9 a month) but one would see pretty substantial savings compared to a month ago ($63.63 a month). With rates near a two month low now might be a decent time to looking at refinancing especially if you have a 30 year rate of 6.5 or higher. 1 year rates are pretty low but I would probably avoid them unless you are quite sure you are going to sale the home in one year. And with the market moving pretty slowly I would not want to bet on selling the house very quickly. The 5 year rate is a pretty pointless option at these rates. With the 30 year rate at 5.97 and the 5 year arm at 5.86 the same rate difference is hardly worth the much shorter rate lock (and remember with a 30 year if rates go down you can always refinance).
So what are rates going to do for the rest of the year? It's hard to tell. Unless something dramatic happens I don't see 30 year mortgage rates going under 5.5. There is the potential for more upward movement at this point simply because rates are low and banks don't seem terribly interested in lending.
Ki lives in Austin Texas. His site has a search of the Austin MLS. It also has updated information on mortgage rates along with a free mortgage calculator.
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